But the total allied force level in Afghanistan stands at just above 70,000 including the U.S. troops. The NATO allies are reluctant to commit more troops. After much U.S. persuasion, French President Nicolas Sarkozy chose to be helpful, adding a measly 100 troops to the French contingent, while opinion polls show that two out of every three French citizens disapprove of the war. The outgoing NATO commander estimated that 400,000 troops are needed to defeat the Taliban. An optimal troop level is impossible to be met. The U.S. and its NATO allies simply do not have the capacity to deploy the troops necessary to force a military settlement or to pacify and occupy Afghanistan.
Even with additional troops, to quote the new head of the U.S. Central Command, David Petraeus, “wresting control of certain areas from the Taliban will be very difficult.” Mr. Petraeus’ approach is to repeat his tactic in Iraq, to bribe the Pashtun tribesmen and to turn them against the pro-Taliban groups — in other words, hire Pashtun mercenaries to fight the war. Given the Pashtun character and tribal ethos, the strong likelihood is that the tribal belt will become anarchic and the war will spread to Pakistan. Its effect on Pakistan will be catastrophic but the expansion of the war is unlikely to stem the tide within Afghanistan, which has gone badly wrong for the western forces.
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10:41 PM
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